Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

[Coolboy]

Europe would have looked *VERY* different after either of the wars without American support

US will not abandon Europe, simple as that. It will destroy whatever credibility Washington has left if US does nothing over a Russian invasion of Ukraine. And remember Beijing is looking keenly on the Ukrainian situation to see if US shrinks from the Moscow challenge, potentially giving them a greenlight over Taiwan. So despite all the talk on how Moscow is spoiling US's desire to focus on China and the Pacific, the two issues are actually linked.

[GentleGeorge]

Original Post Deleted

This is crazy counterfactual history.

To be honest, without USA in WW1, Germany might have wiped out the communist uprising after Breast-Litovsk. We literally have no clue.

I'm pretty glad America intervened when it did, on both occasions.

[East_coast]

Original Post Deleted

Bold claim

[East_coast]

Original Post Deleted

A bold claim. Any studies to support this?

[emx]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...missile-system

[SirNotAppearing]

A bold claim. Any studies to support this?

Studies? What about the Iraq War.

[East_coast]

Studies? What about the Iraq War.

First in last out? Do they cancel each other out?

[Coolboy]

Original Post Deleted

And that makes Russian attack on Ukraine ok? Well hike, did you see US turning tails now that Russia has started its invasion of Ukraine? Nope...more heavy sanctions are coming.

[Coolboy]

Johnny Harris discussing what would happen if China invades Taiwan. Now Harris is a New York Times contributor and a former investigative journalist for online news media site Vox. He is not some rabid US anti-Chinese right-winger and instead definitely leans on the progressive liberal side. He takes pain at the beginning to say he does not want to see a Cross-Straits conflict and does not want to demonize China or think China wants war. What he is describing instead is a possible worst-case scenario and how the danger of conflict is closer to reality than we may realize:



So is his scenario plausible? Or just mere fear-mongering and far from reality?

[FrancisX]

Johnny Harris discussing what would happen if China invades Taiwan. Now Harris is a New York Times contributor and a former investigative journalist for online news media site Vox. He is not some rabid US anti-Chinese right-winger and instead definitely leans on the progressive liberal side. He takes pain at the beginning to say he does not want to see a Cross-Straits conflict and does not want to demonize China or think China wants war. What he is describing instead is a possible worst-case scenario and how the danger of conflict is closer to reality than we may realize:



So is his scenario plausible? Or just mere fear-mongering and far from reality?

What are his credentials? Aside from wearing a wooly hat and looking intensely at online videos.

I see it is a "what if?" scenario, when what's more relevant is a "could it happen" scenario.

I read a report not long ago from a geo political think tank that said even if China wanted to physically invade Taiwan (I don't think it does) it won't have the capabilities until 2027 at the earliest.