How long until posts like this will be banned due to NSL?
Pretty simple calculation
Xi Jinping has bought himself another maybe 10 years in charge, so no immediate rush
But as that clock ticks down, the risk of incident increases, especially if the Chinese area-denial capabilities continue to increase at current rates
The second they think they can do it without the US getting involved, it will happen - and maybe sooner if the cost is seen to be low 'enough' (which is still pretty high, compared to the west's tolerance for overseas engagements)
Symbolically they could take Kinmen islands - amazing Kinmen is still in ROC hands. I guess they are too small to make a difference now, but there was a time when they really wanted to, but could not take them - despite the proximity to Xiamen.
US of A is trying hard to instigate china to do something with all the official visits and sales of weapons..
Obviously they are the one that benefits the most in the event such a war is to happen ?