Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

[pin]

How long until posts like this will be banned due to NSL?

[GentleGeorge]

Pretty simple calculation

Xi Jinping has bought himself another maybe 10 years in charge, so no immediate rush

But as that clock ticks down, the risk of incident increases, especially if the Chinese area-denial capabilities continue to increase at current rates

The second they think they can do it without the US getting involved, it will happen - and maybe sooner if the cost is seen to be low 'enough' (which is still pretty high, compared to the west's tolerance for overseas engagements)

[Elefant&Castle]

Symbolically they could take Kinmen islands - amazing Kinmen is still in ROC hands. I guess they are too small to make a difference now, but there was a time when they really wanted to, but could not take them - despite the proximity to Xiamen.

[freeier]

US of A is trying hard to instigate china to do something with all the official visits and sales of weapons..
Obviously they are the one that benefits the most in the event such a war is to happen ?

[hullexile]

Meanwhile, a more likely flashpoint IMHO


https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2A90I5

[Cheeky Kiwi]

Japan will not stand idle if there is war.

[MABinPengChau]

Meanwhile, a more likely flashpoint IMHO


https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2A90I5

Yes, more penis-waving...

[Coolboy]

Meanwhile, a more likely flashpoint IMHO


https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2A90I5

The South China Sea...who controls it, will impact Taiwan as well. So Taiwan and the South China Sea can be related in some cases.

[GentleGeorge]

Meanwhile, a more likely flashpoint IMHO


https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2A90I5

Carriers are so past it

It's like the World War 1 generals that only knew how to cavalry charge

Wait til a couple of these $10Bn floaters get sunk 600 miles from the Chinese coast by AI guided hypersonic missiles and we will see the war of the future beginning

[hullexile]

Carriers are so past it

It's like the World War 1 generals that only knew how to cavalry charge

Wait til a couple of these $10Bn floaters get sunk 600 miles from the Chinese coast by AI guided hypersonic missiles and we will see the war of the future beginning

Which supports my flashpoint argument.

I think if the SCS kicks off it will start by submarine. Who will know which country sank the Chinese ships?