Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

[drumbrake]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...war-game-finds

[FrancisX]

If China invaded Taiwan and the world responded as it did with Russia-Ukraine, China would collapse in several years, given its dependence on food and energy imports. I would imagine the top people in China know this only too well (not sure if Xi gets briefed though) so any invasion would be purely ideological and ultimately pointless. No strategic value whatsoever.

Saying that, if China continues its current decline (which we expect it to do) then I imagine the leaders will fall back on empty nationalism to justify their existence, which would make an invasion a bigger possibility. It would be economic suicide, but at that point ideology will have beaten reality.

[sarsi]

But how would an invasion even begin.. it doesn't have the land / proximity connx like Ukraine and Russia so in the end it can only claim to "defend" its interests (TW) that is under threat from US or separatists foreign powers OR formally declare war and invade like Putin and both scenarios only via air attack.

I can't see them ever doing that bcos that would basically and finally expose the fraud and lie China's been perpetrating all these years, that TW belongs to them. I don't see any war really happening and even if it did, I can't see it lasting years. The world never sides with an invader doing it just to invade and cause civilian death and with no other possible story they can run to the press other than it's ours. Russia Ukraine does not have this issue, unfortunately.

[bdw]

But how would an invasion even begin.. it doesn't have the land / proximity connx like Ukraine and Russia so in the end it can only claim to "defend" its interests (TW) that is under threat from US or separatists foreign powers OR formally declare war and invade like Putin and both scenarios only via air attack.

It doesnt have to be only air attack. They just commandeer the civilian car ferries and convert them for military use. There is already evidence they are doing this, the ferries in China are mysteriously abandoning their regular scheduled routes and then can be seen lingering around major PLA beachhead assault exercises.

These civilian ferries are massive, each one can carry three times more vehicles than comparable purpose-built US Navy San Antonio-class landing platform docks (LPDs).

https://www.news.com.au/technology/i...2fb1019286cafd

[sarsi]

See they're not that dumb after all, they know real estate is still the only politically correct and acceptable reason for war. So they still need a foothold on physical land. Question is will they have enuff time and pro-china Taiwanese already there to start running parallel stories of pro-foreign powers separatists..

Why is TW central to the core interests of China? Quoting Xi directly who said this when he told trudeau or somebody. How is an island who's been trying to tell the whole world it is independent, doesn't contribute one cent economically to China core to their interest?

[sarsi]

Ominous.. reminds me of how china tried to instill fear and mess around w the Taiwan locals to distract them frm anti china sentiments by masquerading as white cloth ghosts and scaring farmers..lol.. no kidding this is true. I googled but no quick links to share but this 100% true cuz there are Taiwanese alive today who bumped into these ghosts..

I think this would be the beginning of the end of China, the PRC. The local Prc chinese not worried at all abt possible military mobilization like what Russia did? Not worried at all when their sons and husbands are gonna be called to join in when they run out of army men?

[Peaky]

Hard to understand why Taiwan is still spending the vast majority of its defence budget on expensive toys (ships, planes) that the American industry is very happy to collect cheques for. Aside from probably getting a few senators with factories in their states on side it is all utterly pointless and will be sunk and shot down within the first half hour of any attack. Seems clear they just need large numbers of drones and distributed missiles to make sure no car ferries get anywhere near the coast.

The effectiveness and cheapness of those Iranian drones the Russians are using seems to point to where war is going... those are only USD20k a time, the air defence missiles that shoot them down cost 400k to 1.5m. Obvious to have huge numbers of fairly dumb weapons and impose impossible costs on defending against them.

[sarsi]

Hard to understand why Taiwan is still spending the vast majority of its defence budget on expensive toys (ships, planes) that the American industry is very happy to collect cheques for. Aside from probably getting a few senators with factories in their states on side it is all utterly pointless and will be sunk and shot down within the first half hour of any attack. Seems clear they just need large numbers of drones and distributed missiles to make sure no car ferries get anywhere near the coast.

Maybe they laboring under same misconception as me that air is the starting battle ground.. :x

Dunno abt the drones.. is this option open to them w/o it getting political..

[bdw]

That aggressive Chinese wolf warrior dude has been reassigned from the foreign ministry spokesperson role to the department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs. Perhaps a sign that Chinese aggression will shift away from being "all round arseholes" to being more focused on Taiwan and the South China Sea.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-...rior/101851990

[sarsi]

Who.. the zhao lijian?? When did he become.. wait was he ever a wolf or warrior :O

I disagree la. You make it sound like being all round assholes is a conscious strategic move and not a display of basic personality traits (my take). Some things you can't fake.. like this.

South Korea, Japan - require PCR tests from Chinese arrivals, you know the bruhaha

China - slams these as insulting discriminatory. Suspends all short term visas and transit visa exemption for SK, Jap arrivals asap.

A class act as usual, China. But yes, evil foreign powers and foreign media is why ppl dislike the Chinese >.<

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/secti...avel-curbs-row

Anyhoos seeya mr zhao .. I look forward to your replacement spokesperson or maybe none. They have more than 1.. mao ning the other I think..