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Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

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  1. #281

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    Now you've got me champing away on a Friday night, I'm seeing Punic Wars overtones as well

    hullexile likes this.

  2. #282

  3. #283

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    Quote Originally Posted by sarsi:
    make that 30-70..
    60-ish of war. Crisis for TW 70-ish

  4. #284

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    Quote Originally Posted by sarsi:
    60-ish of war. Crisis for TW 70-ish
    How much investment is being driven away from China?

  5. #285

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    How much investment is being driven away from China?
    Dunno.. just estimating based on instinct. The war part (actual intended clash: 2 clear opposing sides like RusUkr) may never happen.. the crisis of TW being gobbled up was always a certainty imo (not if) and rising.. how can agree to disagree and maintain status quo for peace be a qualified country strategy, much less involving conflict risk. Oh status quo been maintained for years like this, China is aware of consequences. France reminded and warned.. yada yada. Analysts saying they will think twice now that [latest event].. When your powers of prediction are always on latest horizon event, maybe you cannot predict at all cuz how can you tell if you have that skill and actually gd at it. So were other govts incl Taiwan actually thinking this the status quo so far meant this is a pure verbal battle of ego and face for China? I guess we'll see, dare to predict means must dare to be wrong 😂

    I just think when the status quo means peace by maintaining a facade which conveniently overlaps with not contradicting the aggressor, war is the natural outcome once the aggressor becomes stronger and gains full strength from enablement.
    Last edited by sarsi; 18-04-2023 at 09:51 AM.

  6. #286

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    BBC reporting.

    The extremely remote islands of Batanes that "can be cut off for weeks". Apart from the many airlines that fly there, multiple flights per day. Takes 70-110 minutes depending where you are flying from.

    What would cause them to be cut off for weeks? Days I can imagine when a typhoon blows through.

    These islands are not one of the EDCA sites, there will be no US troops stationed there. The 8 agreed EDCA sites do not allow for a permanent presence nor the storing of US arms.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65370413


  7. #287

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    Marcos is in the USA today, meeting with Biden

    12 fighters and 160 US air force personnel arrive in Clark today.

    Philippine coast guard being more assertive, supported, or egged on China would say, by the Americans.

    Military exercises between US and Philippine forces where they sank a ship

    China pissed off. Tensions definitely rising