Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

[GentleGeorge]

Which supports my flashpoint argument.

I think if the SCS kicks off it will start by submarine. Who will know which country sank the Chinese ships?

Could well happen - even old-fashioned diesel submarines were hard to spot

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.war...group.html/amp

[er2]

US of A is trying hard to instigate china to do something with all the official visits and sales of weapons..
Obviously they are the one that benefits the most in the event such a war is to happen ?

The US would _benefit_ from a war? What are you smoking?

And quite frankly, the subservient logic here - selling arms to Taiwan is "instigating" is deplorable. At every border of China, it is the same country that is pushing, arguing, threatening. Among the many shortcomings of the US, selling arms to the countries being pushed is not one.

[euless]

to avert a war, which would be disaster for all, u must understand how Chinese think. the moghty Soviet Union fell. Many govt overthrown too by color revolution. China thinks they could be next, and that US/UK is behind it. China sees their action as necessary self defense. Not some one looking for world domination. they see US/UK are inciting people in HK,Taiwan,Xinjing as a threat to China govt. see things this way, then u know how to avert war.

[shri]

then China should be happy as can be about the status quo.

Should is not comforting enough.

[hullexile]

theres basic misunderstanding about China, that it wants to aggressively dominate every country around it. it is what some western media want u to believe. they want u believe China is a bully.

Chona has always been defensive atrategly. its military is still weak in terms of projecting powers. it is built for defense. it is defense of its territory, including Taiqan, HK, Xinjing, Tobet,SCS, etc. it thinks the US/UK wants to contain China and US/Uk wants to overthrow the govt in China. it thinks US/Uk support of oppositions in HK,Taiwan,Tibet,Xinjing are velled excuses to cause disruption on the periphery of China territory, where its grip is weak... with ultimate goal of overthrow of China by US-backed Chinese. with recent color revoluton around the world, i thonk their fear is juatified.

as long as Taiwan focus on doing business and keep anti China rectoric to minimum, then China should be happy as can be about the status quo.

So the over 200 Chinese ships in Philippine waters are defensive?

[shri]

So the over 200 Chinese ships in Philippine waters are defensive?

Aren't they there to defend / shield the valuable assets?

[MABinPengChau]

Living in Taiwan, speaking to the locals, it would be the battle of Okinawa all over again (I believe half of all Okinawans died and plenty of Allied troops as well). Would be down to the last man if it were an attempted invasion. I think China knows this as well, it's a fiercely loyal country. And thus they could "win the battle but lose the war" because the optics would be that damaging. That's not how China rolls...so I don't see it happening, just the same games that are happening now...Taiwan is thinking of shooting down some drones the Chinese have been flying over some islands, there will be some retaliation for that, somehow...I remember the Cold War, these kind of games can go on for decades...

[hullexile]

5 years ago America refused to make this commitment. Everything is changing politically and militarily at the moment.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/04/08/us-warn...wjr7svX2JB61dE

[RMDNC]

https://youtu.be/lK8gYGg0dkE

We all know the ending when you push the US the wrong way.

[TheBrit]

The US would _benefit_ from a war? What are you smoking?

And quite frankly, the subservient logic here - selling arms to Taiwan is "instigating" is deplorable. At every border of China, it is the same country that is pushing, arguing, threatening. Among the many shortcomings of the US, selling arms to the countries being pushed is not one.

Quite so. One of the stupidest comments for a long time.