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Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

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  1. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    So the over 200 Chinese ships in Philippine waters are defensive?
    neither sides has agreed how to define China-Phillipine water. All sides need to work this out peacefully. It is in China's interest to resolve conflict. it cost them more money to be in dispute than sign a treaty with Phillipine. my guess is China will eventually make concession with treaty with Phillipine.

    it is dumb tobe in dispute with neighbor over bunch of rocks. we know China is not run by dumb people. the dispute is overblown by media to portray one side as bully. the relevent parties will resolve the issue, but some may not want that.

    no doubt US/UK will work behind the scene to prevent such resolution. since China is becoming a great competitor to US/UK...and US want to slow China down as much as itcan.
    Last edited by euless; 08-04-2021 at 04:10 PM.

  2. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by euless:
    neither sides has agreed how to define Phillipine water. All sides need to work this out peacefully. It is in China's interest to resolve conflict. it cost them more money to be in dispute than sign a treaty with Phillipine. my guess is China will eventually make concession with treaty with Phillipine.
    Gatts, cookie09, alexdown and 2 others like this.

  3. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by euless:
    neither sides has agreed how to define China-Phillipine water. All sides need to work this out peacefully. It is in China's interest to resolve conflict. it cost them more money to be in dispute than sign a treaty with Phillipine. my guess is China will eventually make concession with treaty with Phillipine.

    it is dumb tobe in dispute with neighbor over bunch of rocks. we know China is not run by dumb people. the dispute is overblown by media to portray one side as bully. the relevent parties will resolve the issue.

    no doubt US/UK will work behind the scene to prevent a resolution. esp
    I guess the ruling 5 years ago dismissing the Chinese claims were not reported in the China media.

  4. #34

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    it needs to be resolved by both sides amicably. Not imposed on one side by waving a legal document, insisting they are right. or imposed by external forces. that doesnt solve problem...only kick the can down the road.

    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I guess the ruling 5 years ago dismissing the Chinese claims were not reported in the China media.
    Last edited by euless; 08-04-2021 at 04:30 PM.

  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    I guess the ruling 5 years ago dismissing the Chinese claims were not reported in the China media.
    I figure the the 'ancient' nine dash line is in all the 2012 textbooks and anything different is erased from the Chinese internet...

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by euless:
    it needs to be resolved by both sides amicably. Not imposed on one side by waving a legal document, insisting they are right.
    Pmsl. That is a quote from the Global Times. I now understand some of your other weird posts.

    It also reflects China's understanding that international law and treaties are worthless

  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Pmsl. That is a quote from the Global Times. I now understand some of your other weird posts.

    It also reflects China's understanding that international law and treaties are worthless
    Well, I guess another lurking wumao on here is outed.

    Back to Taiwan though. In a worst case scenario, of a Chinese military attack on Taiwan, I can't imagine the Chinese controlled islands in the South China Sea will get off unscathed. The US will see those islands as a threat to their attempt to thwart the Chinese invasion, a potential platform to launch missiles and other area denial weapons against the US Navy coming to the aid of Taiwan. I can't see the US Navy or Air Force ignoring those islands in the event of a Taiwan conflict.
    Last edited by Coolboy; 08-04-2021 at 05:56 PM.

  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by hullexile:
    Pmsl. That is a quote from the Global Times. I now understand some of your other weird posts.

    It also reflects China's understanding that international law and treaties are worthless
    So u read the GT?

  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Well, I guess another lurking wumao on here is outed.

    Back to Taiwan though. In a worst case scenario, of a Chinese military attack on Taiwan, I can't imagine the Chinese controlled islands in the South China Sea will get off unscathed. The US will see those islands as a threat to their attempt to thwart the Chinese invasion, a potential platform to launch missiles and other area denial weapons against the US Navy coming to the aid of Taiwan. I can't see the US Navy or Air Force ignoring those islands in the event of a Taiwan conflict.
    Presumably there would be a wave of missile/bombing strikes on the islands and once those were damaged, the warzone environment would make it virtually impossible to resupply those islands and so they quickly get nullified.

  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by euless:
    So u read the GT?
    It comes up on my FB sometimes, together with several other comedy sites.
    aw451, Gatts and markranson like this.

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