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Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

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  1. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    China have certainly escalated their activity...

    From the FT





    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/taiw...-airspace.html

    And this one from Australia...

    https://www.theguardian.com/australi...air-incursions
    I doubt the PLA is intentionally trying to provoke a war with Taiwan right now. Rather, its to send a message to Taiwan to cease what Beijing deems as pro-independence activities, as well as to wear out and test the Taiwan defenses.

    The real problem is miscalculation here. There is little to no communication between the PLAAF and the ROCAF. This raises the danger of some hot-blooded "Maverick" type pilot from the PLA engaging in some over-aggressive actions that compels the ROCAF to shoot it down. Given the increasing volume of such flights, that danger is rising. If a PLA plane is shot down. Then how will the PLA respond? How will Taiwan respond if one of their ROCAF plane is shot down by the PLA?
    hongkong7 likes this.

  2. #72

  3. #73

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    Australia is definitely getting more involved with the military side in the region. Overtly anyway, I think they always were covertly.

  4. #74

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    The comments below this article make interesting reading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...n-at-all-costs

    AsianXpat0 and Baklava like this.

  5. #75

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    Every time Taiwan responds to Mainland encounters they give away their (and any allied forces’) response mechanisms (tracking, radio, counterforces, etc) and the mainland learns from it.


  6. #76

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    Further south:.

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    markranson, Sith, shri and 2 others like this.

  7. #77

  8. #78

  9. #79

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    So.... not so secret.
    Tandy, hullexile, Andy SNK and 1 others like this.

  10. #80

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    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...d-abide-taiwan

    From a day or so ago. Anyone predicting China moves for reunification before Biden leaves office? Biden's ties to the ccp are pretty well documented and despite all the US bravado of late, a back room deal seems like it could settle everything with the US only continuing to make "strong condemnation"

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