There are recent news analysis that seem to suggest that the next Taiwan Strait crisis is brewing. They suggest China may think its time to take military action on Taiwan after its "success" clamping down on Xinjiang and in HK. That Beijing thinks Biden is weak. We see increased PLA fighter and bomber planes flying into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. PLA Navy is also ratcheting up its war games on the seas surrounding Taiwan (on both sides, not just the Taiwan Strait). Beijing may think any economic blowback in sanctions or travel restrictions are manageable in response to any overt military action to take back Taiwan:
Personally though...I still have doubts about this scenario. I'm skeptical and not entirely sold on this idea. Nothing has drastically changed on both sides of the Taiwan Straits to make either side think military action must be taken imminently. Taiwan has increased steps to make itself more visible internationally. But it has not crossed Beijing's red lines of opening declaration independence. Beijing, for all its official propaganda, they know full well the power and reach of the US Navy and Air Force. Some war games may suggest China might come off better, but in a real shooting war, would China be so confident seeing themselves prevailing? I don't think so. For all their public bravado, China is all too aware of the superiority of US military over the PLA.
Or am I wrong? Or all sides here miscalculating? Are they sleepwalking into a potential conflict?