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Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

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  1. #1

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    Taiwan Strait Crisis: How Likely?

    There are recent news analysis that seem to suggest that the next Taiwan Strait crisis is brewing. They suggest China may think its time to take military action on Taiwan after its "success" clamping down on Xinjiang and in HK. That Beijing thinks Biden is weak. We see increased PLA fighter and bomber planes flying into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. PLA Navy is also ratcheting up its war games on the seas surrounding Taiwan (on both sides, not just the Taiwan Strait). Beijing may think any economic blowback in sanctions or travel restrictions are manageable in response to any overt military action to take back Taiwan:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...her-than-later

    Personally though...I still have doubts about this scenario. I'm skeptical and not entirely sold on this idea. Nothing has drastically changed on both sides of the Taiwan Straits to make either side think military action must be taken imminently. Taiwan has increased steps to make itself more visible internationally. But it has not crossed Beijing's red lines of opening declaration independence. Beijing, for all its official propaganda, they know full well the power and reach of the US Navy and Air Force. Some war games may suggest China might come off better, but in a real shooting war, would China be so confident seeing themselves prevailing? I don't think so. For all their public bravado, China is all too aware of the superiority of US military over the PLA.

    Or am I wrong? Or all sides here miscalculating? Are they sleepwalking into a potential conflict?

    Last edited by Coolboy; 08-04-2021 at 10:35 AM.

  2. #2

    Zero.

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  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by William06:
    Zero.
    I hope you are right...

  4. #4

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    Maybe we'll see a dick comparison exercise - maybe an intrusion that actually get Taiwan to shoot down some plane/drone, followed by a bombardment of a Taiwanese islet, etc.. But - how in the age of guided missiles do you actually invade a country that has these? Can Beijing bomb Taiwan into sand - probably. Does it want to? Less likely. Can it invade? Ships are really really vulnerable targets if you know exactly where they are, and you can't hide them in the Ocean if you're trying to hit a tiny island.

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  5. #5

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    Maybe we'll see a dick comparison exercise...
    This. We're already seeing it, except so far the dicks are quite small...
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  6. #6

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    Original Post Deleted
    Crimea is a peninsula that even from the Russian side is a mere 2km away with heaps of ferries. And actually there was no invasion in the literal sense. The Russian-dominated security forces of Yakunovych simply realised they had no chance controlling Kiev, went to Crimea, put a Russian flag on their uniforms and said "we're now part of Russia". That doesn't make it better, but it does make it a whole lot easier - no boats needed.

    While the number of people who want eventual reunification with China in Taiwan is sizeable, the number who would want the PLA to come waltzing into the country is negligible. Probably not even Lien Chan would go for it.
    shri and spode like this.

  7. #7

    It's more likely there will be some kind of "Gulf of Tonkin" type incident.


  8. #8

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    The next war won't be started as a strategically choreographed military assault ordered by presidents and prime ministers. It'll be someone low in the chain of command and he will trigger it with an ill-advised launch, shot or territory breach. Then because of "face," neither side will backdown and things will escalate from there.


  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by huja:
    The next war won't be started as a strategically choreographed military assault ordered by presidents and prime ministers. It'll be someone low in the chain of command and he will trigger it with an ill-advised launch, shot or territory breach. Then because of "face," neither side will backdown and things will escalate from there.
    Like say........ India/China recent incident.
    shri and spode like this.

  10. #10

    Risk definitely higher now but still very unlikely. The more the US/China decouples the higher the chances of conflict. However at this point the relationship is bad but stable and I have much higher confidence in Biden being able to keep things steady than Trump.

    China probably have enough military to take over Taiwan now. They don't have enough to do it quickly and surgically and China would really prefer to keep Taiwan's economy intact. But if push does come to shove I don't see how the US can defend Taiwan successfully.

    Coolboy likes this.

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