Is South China Sea about to explode?

[AsianXpat0]

It doesn't matter how many treaties you sign, what matters is how many turn up when the shit hits the fan. If no one turns up you're on your own.

Who had a treaty with Kuwait when they turned up against Iraq?

Versus the guarantees Ukraine got when they gave up the nukes on their territory.

Will to act the limiting factor.

[hullexile]

It doesn't matter how many treaties you sign, what matters is how many turn up when the shit hits the fan. If no one turns up you're on your own.

Do you think a treaty makes it less likely they will turn up?

Do you think treaties (and the presence of foreign troops) makes an attack by China more or less likely?

At the least it is a very clear public statement of support.

Do you think Taiwan would welcome such treaties?

[GentleGeorge]

https://www.ft.com/content/c03e03ba-...b-246d59ecaf0c

So on top of the Middle East and Eastern Europe, we can now add the Subcontinent to the lost of places that have exploded on a tighter timescale than the "West Philippines Sea"

[hullexile]

https://www.ft.com/content/c03e03ba-...b-246d59ecaf0c

So on top of the Middle East and Eastern Europe, we can now add the Subcontinent to the lost of places that have exploded on a tighter timescale than the "West Philippines Sea"

I think you have played that card several times before. If you think the sub-continent is a new flashpoint to be added you have missed 80 years of history. I would have thought you would have known that given China's involvement.

[hullexile]

https://www.ft.com/content/c03e03ba-...b-246d59ecaf0c

So on top of the Middle East and Eastern Europe, we can now add the Subcontinent to the lost of places that have exploded on a tighter timescale than the "West Philippines Sea"

Just to try and make itclear to you:

How long has trouble in the Middle East been brewing?

How long has trouble between India and Pakistan been brewing?

How long has trouble between Russia and Ukraine been brewing?

Decades in all cases.

China has not invaded Taiwan so clearly that concern is all
for nothing.


I hope and expect nothing serious will happen. The red lines are if the Chinese attempt to build on Scarborough Shaol or if the Chinese in one of their stupid actions go beyond injuring to killing