Japan's has been working on what some call the "balance of reassurance". As I'm sure you know, Japan's regional reputation has been, and remains, anything but good. This is a point often forgotten in the West, but if you take out those populations whose experience with Japanese colonialism was less harsh, then it's probably the most hated state in East Asia. China is probably catching up with the territorial disputes and all, but still. It's not a coincidence that a majority of the South Korean population, for instance, say they mistrust Japan more than China. When Japan offered to send mine sweepers in the Gulf War, Malaysia's President compared it to letting a recovering alcoholic have liqueur chocolate. Etc.
So Japan, with its brutal reputation and all, has post WWII worked hard to improve its image. This has been done in many ways. The US alliance and Article 9 has certainly been helpful, but military restraint alone will not do. Thus, economic support has been another instrument.
As for reducing Japanese nationalism to hatred of authoritarianism, I don't agree with that. Japanese nationalism, at least in its more extreme forms, is incredibly racist (as is the Chinese equivalent, of course). It contains historical white washing at its worst, it sees China as an ungrateful student bashing its teacher (Japan), and so forth. When it comes to the arithmetics I'm not sure, it might be that a substantially bigger percentage of Chinese have negative views of Japanese that have little to do with history and everything to do with prejudice than the other way around. But Japanese nationalism is not the same as principled anti-authoritarianism. In fact, a lot of the hard core nationalists look back to the days of the military rule with nostalgia.
You are right in saying that credibility matters. Some would probably argue that defending the Philippines could be important for the US simply because it wants to protect the credibility it enjoys with other, more important, allies (Japan, South Korea). This does not go against the school of IR known as "realism".
However, when it comes to the disputed areas, if I'm not mistaken the US has been pretty clear in stating that these are not covered. There's little of the "strategic ambiguity" you see when the US and Japan discuss Taiwan, for instance. And so, while I do think the US would react if China attacked the Philippines (a highly hypothetical scenario, why on earth would the country who has the most to gain from regional stability right now do this?), as in the established areas of the country. Should China use force in the disputed areas, however, I see that as incredibly unrealistic.
I think each nation should pick a hand to hand combat champion and have a fight to the death. Whoever wins gets the legal right to the island. This would save a lot of pain and suffering if the Asian War erupts.
That raises the question of "who" is getting away with things. Do you think it serves the US interest to let Philippines hide under the US security umbrella and provoke China without fear of retaliation? If it is the Philippines who launches an attack on Chinese ships on the shoal and the Chinese respond in kind, you think the Americans would just rush in to aid the Filpinos? A security treaty is not an excuse for reckless action. US credibility hinges also on not letting its' allies run loose. Manila is currently betting Beijing would'nt dare fire on them because the Americans will back them up. But if Manila crosses the line, they would soon discover their confidence in the US is misplaced.
As I have said repeatedly, the US does not want to drag itself into a conflict with the disputed areas, they will invent some excuse if things heat up in the shoals.
Japan and Taiwan are entirely different. US (and China) knows quite clearly in their hearts that Taiwan is a totally different case and the American response will also be entirely different. Neither side is foolish enough to think that the South China Sea islands is just as important as Taiwan or Japan's secutity. One does not equate to the other.
Last edited by Watercooler; 20-08-2012 at 10:15 PM.
What did this clarify apart from re-stating your opinion about Japanese national and some what appears to be waffle about nationalism and racism?
Some evidence even anecdotal is better than hoping the reader believes 'Japanese Nationalism is incredible racist' is a statement that shows nationalism is rife and a problem in society. It could just be replaced with ' any countries name Nationalism is incredible racist'
Last edited by East_coast; 20-08-2012 at 10:11 PM.