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Typhoon Season 2013

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  1. #251

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    Quote Originally Posted by INXS:
    T1 now...T3 to come I expect...
    It's path is moving towards Hainan and more than likely not hit the 400kms radius mark from HK.

  2. #252
    Quote Originally Posted by virago:
    It's path is moving towards Hainan and more than likely not hit the 400kms radius mark from HK.
    It's now taking a more northern path.

  3. #253

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    "A band of thundery showers will move across Hong Kong shortly and bring squally showers to the territory in the next couple of hours. Members of the public should be on the alert."


  4. #254

    Looks like we are going to have T8? The high pressure system over Vietnam is dissipated.

    INXS likes this.

  5. #255

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    T3 up.


    10chars


  6. #256

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    From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre..... http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

    Based on this very doubtful we'll see T8

    WDPN31 PGTW 010900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR
    06//
    RMKS//
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 524 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH THE BULK
    OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE
    PERIPHERY. MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS WITH
    THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
    113.6E AND A SMALL, EXPOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 16.5N 113.8E. MSI
    INDICATES THAT THE SMALLER, EXPOSED CIRCULATION MAY BE ORBITING THE
    LARGER, DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
    PRIMARY LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
    THE MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
    WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
    DUE TO THE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
    AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM
    PGTW. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTEROMETRY PASSES FROM 010223Z AND 010450Z
    CONFIRM THE 35 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY AS WELL AS CLEARLY DEPICT THE
    CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH WEAKER WINDS AT THE
    CORE OF THE LLCC AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
    EXPANDED WIND FIELD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    AND STRONG OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NORTH OF
    TAIWAN. TS 09W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
    SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
    (STR).
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
    PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
    ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO AN
    APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE MID-
    LATITUDE TROUGH, THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD OVER
    CHINA PRODUCING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH FASTER TRACK
    SPEEDS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY
    A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKERS, THEREFORE, THERE
    IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO
    SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS PRIOR TO TRACKING
    OVER HAINAN ISLAND. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
    THE BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE NATURE OF THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
    SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING
    WITH LAND AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
    NEAR TAU 36. TS 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM BY
    APPROXIMATELY TAU 48 AND WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE
    INCREASED FRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION.//
    NNNN


  7. #257

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fiona in HKG:
    From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre..... http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

    Based on this very doubtful we'll see T8

    WDPN31 PGTW 010900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI) WARNING NR
    06//
    RMKS//
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL STORM 09W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 524 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH THE BULK
    OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE
    PERIPHERY. MSI CONTINUES TO DEPICT TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS WITH
    THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
    113.6E AND A SMALL, EXPOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 16.5N 113.8E. MSI
    INDICATES THAT THE SMALLER, EXPOSED CIRCULATION MAY BE ORBITING THE
    LARGER, DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
    PRIMARY LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
    THE MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
    WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
    DUE TO THE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
    AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM
    PGTW. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTEROMETRY PASSES FROM 010223Z AND 010450Z
    CONFIRM THE 35 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY AS WELL AS CLEARLY DEPICT THE
    CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH WEAKER WINDS AT THE
    CORE OF THE LLCC AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
    EXPANDED WIND FIELD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    AND STRONG OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NORTH OF
    TAIWAN. TS 09W IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
    SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
    (STR).
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
    PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
    ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO AN
    APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE MID-
    LATITUDE TROUGH, THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD OVER
    CHINA PRODUCING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH FASTER TRACK
    SPEEDS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY
    A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SPREAD OF MODEL TRACKERS, THEREFORE, THERE
    IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO
    SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS PRIOR TO TRACKING
    OVER HAINAN ISLAND. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
    THE BROAD, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE NATURE OF THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
    SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING
    WITH LAND AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN
    NEAR TAU 36. TS 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM BY
    APPROXIMATELY TAU 48 AND WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE
    INCREASED FRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION.//
    NNNN
    Not doubting their forecasting skills and it's probably accurate of course but this report is several hours old..., just so you know...

    It wouldn't really take much more than jog for a T8...

    Gusts exceeding 80kph @ Cheung Chau...
    Last edited by INXS; 01-08-2013 at 05:54 PM.

  8. #258

    uh oh....Now its moving toward NW instead of N.


  9. #259

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    Quote Originally Posted by INXS:
    Not doubting their forecasting skills and it's probably accurate of course but this report is several hours old..., just so you know...

    It wouldn't really take much more than jog for a T8...

    Gusts exceeding 80kph @ Cheung Chau...
    Indeed but they have proven to be pretty good with the TAU forecasting.

    We've had monsoons recently with 70kph gusts and will need sustained wind speed of 63-117kph for T8.

    INXS, we should start a 'book' on what's going to happen Like you I'm a weather watcher. Comes from being the offspring of a salty old sea captain

    Might be a bit of a rough ferry ride home tonight and out again in the morning.
    INXS likes this.

  10. #260

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    Feb 2013
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    Interesting now as 93W is being absorbed into JEBI's rather large circulation...we look on...


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