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Timing Markets: Should not, but..

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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    @huja - unfortunately no ETFs listed for global lottery pools.

    I would invest $100 (HK) a month into it.
    I once had a professor describe the lottery as a tax for those who don't understand math.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    Whats the play for this scenario - "Trump and GOP remain in control of the congress and senate in 2018 mid terms"?

    I actually asked a broker that question. The brokerage house guys (economists, political scientist, futurists, etc) thought it would be good for the market. Not even phased by the trade war. More concerned about if for some reason Trump didn't finish his term. That would be the wild card.
    shri likes this.

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by huja:
    I once had a professor describe the lottery as a tax for those who don't understand math.
    Cheaper thrill than a Starbucks

  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    Cheaper thrill than a Starbucks
    No doubt!

    (Disclaimer: I was a below average student in math)
    shri likes this.

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by huja:
    I actually asked a broker that question. The brokerage house guys (economists, political scientist, futurists, etc) thought it would be good for the market. Not even phased by the trade war. More concerned about if for some reason Trump didn't finish his term. That would be the wild card.
    Ultra shoirt bet - lottery
    Short bet - elections - us and brazil
    Medium short bet - Trump finishing term and winning 2020 elections / Brexit
    Last edited by shri; 19-10-2018 at 07:58 AM.

  6. #26

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    Here's a fun etf for those wanting to bet..

    Name:  Screenshot_20181019-081109.png
Views: 369
Size:  134.6 KB


  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by huja:
    I once had a professor describe the lottery as a tax for those who don't understand math.
    https://slate.com/technology/2018/10...qJZAgJMUmnHmuM

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by huja:
    I once had a professor describe the lottery as a tax for those who don't understand math.
    People who say that don't understand the concept of variable utilities of money, nor conditional probabilities.

  9. #29

    In case this is helpful for others, I've confirmed with IB HK that their have the same asset segregation policy as IB LLC, which might provide some extra (psychological) comfort.


  10. #30

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    With the lottery up to US$1.6 Billon, I think the math now does say it is actually better to buy a ticket, even after taxes.

    Let's start a Geoexpat pool and buy every possible combination, then we are a guaranteed winner. Surely we can raise the necessary US$605,150,700 easily.
    Just pray that we don't have to share the pot with another winner!

    mmocha likes this.