View Poll Results: Brext Bets?

Voters
37. You may not vote on this poll
  • As Planned on March 29th

    2 5.41%
  • No Deal on March 29th

    12 32.43%
  • Delayed to 2021

    9 24.32%
  • Other...

    14 37.84%
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Brexit Bets - Delay, Hard Exit or Last Minute Deal?

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  1. #511

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    yes, you're right the EU split the negotiations in two forcing the UK into a much weaker position. Mrs May should never of agreed. Weren't there even bi-lateral talks between Ireland and the UK on the ways to get a near frictional border but these were stopped by the EU as it is really an EU border rather than an Irish border?

    The below was a good future view of the negotiations for article 50
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYdGAAYW_EI

  2. #512

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    I have no idea but it looks as if she believes her withdrawal agreement is the best the UK can get. It is terrible so it doesn't bode well for a future UK Prime Minister who will probably have an even weaker mandate.

  3. #513

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    Perhaps, a general election would probably be the best way to do this but that sounds a terrible idea.

  4. #514

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    One argument I recall is that there is greater awareness now of the difficulty in leaving. I agree that is now known where people had just argued that it would be difficult to unravel 50 years of shared history before the vote. I still do not see this as a reason to re-run a vote. Something that was speculated as being probable actually happened.
    There's been spending of 2bn GBP, with a similar amount budgeted, the pound has lost 15% of its value, UK economy is 2.5% smaller than predicted if vote went the other way. There's also demographic change in the background as younger, more pro-European youth become eligible to vote, and older people die.

    Before the referendum, brexiters said no vote would lead to a lot of good things, remainers said it would lead to a lot of bad things. So far it looks like the remainers are right - lots of bad things happening, not a lot of good things.

    Other than everyone knowing a lot more about the facts and reality of brexit, what would you possibly expect "new" to happen that would justify running a vote?

    I'm not saying that any of this means there definitely should be another referendum, but I'm unclear why you think we definitely shouldn't. The amount of time and money that has been spent seems a reasonable response to the initial referendum, and it seems to me that everyone is a lot clearer on the options available.

    If the leave side are confident in their case, then there is nothing for them to fear from a referendum. If anything, it would provide better bargaining power to the UK against the EU, and for leave politicians versus the remainers. As it is, it just looks like leave have a weak case.

    It also seems to me that the reason the EU is difficult to leave is because it's a pretty good deal for its members. The UK has already negotiated all sorts of opt-outs and exceptions, it doesn't seem unreasonable for the EU to impose some conditions. The alternative is that the EU itself falls apart. Maybe what some people want, but not really what I think would be good for Europe.

  5. #515

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    I assume for some brexiters, the reasoning would be you get a bad deal because it's a shorter distance from there to no deal. Showing you're willing to walk away might be what it takes to magic up a mythical good brexit deal.

    In reality, I suspect the UK will return in ten years, chastened, to rejoin the EU on worse terms than we have now. Might be worth it if it shuts up the brexiters and removes any perceived unfairness from the EU regarding UK exceptionality.

  6. #516

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  7. #517

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    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    There's been spending of 2bn GBP, with a similar amount budgeted
    On what?

    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    the pound has lost 15% of its value
    It is about the same as it was 10 years ago. It did go up against the Euro in 2016 a little but against the basket of currencies the UK trades with the swings have not been that extra-ordinary

    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...o=EUR&view=10Y

    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    UK economy is 2.5% smaller than predicted if vote went the other way.
    It was predicted to be much much lower. Hasn't the EU has under performed by a similar anount. But yes staying in the EU would probably be better for the UK. The no deal inventory overhang will unravel soon making the figures look worse.

    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    There's also demographic change in the background as younger, more pro-European youth become eligible to vote, and older people die.
    In 1975 the UK voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU. Many of the idealistic young voters who voted to remain then voter leave this time. As people get older they become more Eurosceptic. Given the age profile of the UK this argument seems severely flawed.



    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    If the leave side are confident in their case, then there is nothing for them to fear from a referendum. If anything, it would provide better bargaining power to the UK against the EU, and for leave politicians versus the remainers. As it is, it just looks like leave have a weak case.
    At the moment the country is collectively suffering from the uncertainty of change.



    I would argue at least 3 years possibly longer should be allowed to remove the calamity of the current unfinished negotiations affecting the result. My worst fear would be the pro-Brexit camp abstaining and remain winning with a lower total number of votes. More confusion and deeper division.

    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    It also seems to me that the reason the EU is difficult to leave is because it's a pretty good deal for its members. The UK has already negotiated all sorts of opt-outs and exceptions, it doesn't seem unreasonable for the EU to impose some conditions. The alternative is that the EU itself falls apart. Maybe what some people want, but not really what I think would be good for Europe.
    The negotiation is not difficult because the EU is such a lovely club it is difficult because Mrs May is wanting and the EU is belligerent

    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    Other than everyone knowing a lot more about the facts and reality of brexit, what would you possibly expect "new" to happen that would justify running a vote?
    The remain camp lost as it didn't get the issue across successfully. The polls are about the same now as 3 years ago.

    Something needs to change. The only constitutional document in the UK (that I am aware of) that sets the framework for a specific regional plebiscite states a minimum of 7 years between votes on the same issue. That feels to short for me and should be at least 3 governments as well.
    Last edited by East_coast; 08-04-2019 at 05:38 PM.

  8. #518

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    Quote Originally Posted by dengxi:
    In reality, I suspect the UK will return in ten years, chastened, to rejoin the EU on worse terms than we have now. Might be worth it if it shuts up the brexiters and removes any perceived unfairness from the EU regarding UK exceptionality.
    That would probably be the best outcome for the UK and the EU as it is hard to imagine the UK getting a reasonable trade deal with the EU any time soon as it stands.

  9. #519

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    The negotiations for the 2nd referendum aren't even 1/2 way through yet.

  10. #520

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    Quote Originally Posted by East_coast:
    It was a very important decision and both sides should of brought their 'A' game. The remain campaign was not good and lost.
    Forgetting about other factors and concentrating on the campaigning by the two main parties only, surely you understand how the dynamics of UK's party politics watered down the pro-EU campaign.

    Cameron called the referendum specifically to deal with (or placate) the Tory right wing brexiteers. Campaining strongly for the Remain campaign would have damaged his party's "unity".

    Meanwhile, being in the opposition and therefore having to disagree with Tory policies as a principle, campaining for the Remain choice was toxic to Corbyn, despite Labour being predominantly pro-EU.

    With even the BBC aiming to be unbiased by giving equal coverage to the Leave campaign's false claims and the tabloids doing what they've always done, the pro-EU camp wasn't equipped to counter all the anti-EU claims by the UKIP types.

    Also note that while the brexiteers attacked the European Union of 28 member states with absolute impunity, the EU wasn't really able to defend itself because that would have constituted interference in the UK's "domestic politics".
    civil_servant likes this.