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Could Hong Kong Lose Finance Hub Status?

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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Not that simple. Taiwan was one of the 4 Asian Tigers, it's economy started to take off while the mainland was still mired in the aftermath of the Cultural Revolution. It cannot be attributed to the China factor alone.
    That was the 80s and everything was different, we didn't have negative interest rates then . As an example, Taiwan had more than a quarter of a million Chinese visitors per day back in 2016 and ever since the new Taiwanese President came in power, they have a fraction of those visitors.

    Apart from say maybe Foxconn which other Taiwanese company really shine in the world stage? But in China there are a few well known Taiwanese brands, so it goes to show the target market for Taiwan is at least 75% China (whether they like it or not), not sure how that is even questionable.

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolface:
    That was the 80s and everything was different, we didn't have negative interest rates then . As an example, Taiwan had more than a quarter of a million Chinese visitors per day back in 2016 and ever since the new Taiwanese President came in power, they have a fraction of those visitors.

    Apart from say maybe Foxconn which other Taiwanese company really shine in the world stage? But in China there are a few well known Taiwanese brands, so it goes to show the target market for Taiwan is at least 75% China (whether they like it or not), not sure how that is even questionable.
    Not everything was different, it shows an economy can be developed without relying on the Chinese market. Yes, Taiwan is more reliant on the mainland market, but is the Chinese market the only solution? I don't know how you came up with that 75%, what source? Or did you just made it up?

    Look at Israel, it was boycotted by the Arab and Muslim nations (which combined, had a huge market), yet the economy took off there anyway.

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Not everything was different, it shows an economy can be developed without relying on the Chinese market. Yes, Taiwan is more reliant on the mainland market, but is the Chinese market the only solution? I don't know how you came up with that 75%, what source? Or did you just made it up?

    Look at Israel, it was boycotted by the Arab and Muslim nations (which combined, had a huge market), yet the economy took off there anyway.
    I m not saying Taiwan rely solely in the Chinese market but as a Chinese speaking economy which country would they depend on? Look at some of the FDI's and you would understand, Taiwanese have been setting up offshore entities via Hong Kong for investments into China and vice versa, it was happening in the 80s and still happening now.

    If you have actually been to Taiwan and understand the economy and people you would know they are proud to be Taiwanese but at the same time they know they have a small population and market and rich ones all have connections and businesses in China, thats how they got rich in the first place.


    And also the comparison should really be Belarus and Russia because essentially if you go to Belarus everyone speaks Belarusian (essentially Russian) and their largest importer is Russia.

  4. #14

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    i am sure taiwan would be glad to develop their economy away from China in the last 20 years.. but unfortunately it hasn't been able to do so and if you visit taiwan you can really tell..

    easiest way of telling >> hundreds of thousands (guesstimated, according to political analyst TV anchors in taiwan) of taiwanese works in mainland china..


  5. #15

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    I think this basically sums it up

    "More than 3,000 semiconductor engineers have departed Taiwan for positions at mainland companies, the island's Business Weekly reports. Analysts at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research say this figure appears to be accurate. That amounts to nearly one-tenth of Taiwan's roughly 40,000 engineers involved in semiconductor research and development."

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Chi...-in-China-2025


  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hkemail888:
    Taipei? lol. Have they been to Taiwan? it's so backward there, feels like being in 2nd or 3rd tier cities in China. Great place to go, great for holidays, but no way it will ever be a financial center.
    Have you been to Taipei? Comparing Taipei to some 2nd or 3rd tier city in China is just nonsense, Taipei is light years ahead of even any first tier city in China.I actually cannot think of a single thing that would be better in any city in China(except HK) than in Taipei from a quality of life perspective. Can you?

    It will obviously not be a financial center though, the banking system is a mess.

  7. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolface:
    That was the 80s and everything was different, we didn't have negative interest rates then . As an example, Taiwan had more than a quarter of a million Chinese visitors per day back in 2016 and ever since the new Taiwanese President came in power, they have a fraction of those visitors.

    Apart from say maybe Foxconn which other Taiwanese company really shine in the world stage? But in China there are a few well known Taiwanese brands, so it goes to show the target market for Taiwan is at least 75% China (whether they like it or not), not sure how that is even questionable.
    There are a lot of globally successful taiwanese companies, TSMC is obviously the most prominent but then you got companies like Giant, Acer, Asus, BenQ, zyxel, gogoro, etc.

    Taiwan is doing pretty good actually considering their size, I doubt they are doing any worse than e.g. Australia which is of the same size. Throwing in the fact that Taiwan is not officially recognised either and the lack of FTAs, they are doing very well.
    Coolboy likes this.

  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolface:
    They are similar but Taipei is part of Taiwan and until it is part of China it will never be able to serve the China market. They have difficulty attracting international businesses as everything is in Chinese and just trying to establish a company or bank account is difficult in itself. So unless Taiwan declares itself as part of China, otherwise it will remain stagnant like it has for 20+ years.
    There was an annoucnement from one of Tsai's Cabinet ministers that they intended to adopt English as a 2nd official language in the near future but I don't know what happened to that. Would be a gamechanger if implemented - not necessarily to become a global finance hub but in making the Taiwanese a more significant economic player.

  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolface:
    I m not saying Taiwan rely solely in the Chinese market but as a Chinese speaking economy which country would they depend on? Look at some of the FDI's and you would understand, Taiwanese have been setting up offshore entities via Hong Kong for investments into China and vice versa, it was happening in the 80s and still happening now.

    If you have actually been to Taiwan and understand the economy and people you would know they are proud to be Taiwanese but at the same time they know they have a small population and market and rich ones all have connections and businesses in China, thats how they got rich in the first place.


    And also the comparison should really be Belarus and Russia because essentially if you go to Belarus everyone speaks Belarusian (essentially Russian) and their largest importer is Russia.
    Why would they need to depend on any one state? Taiwan is connected to the global economy. They managed to do fine all these years despite political tension with the mainland. They will do fine in the future.

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by henkka:
    There are a lot of globally successful taiwanese companies, TSMC is obviously the most prominent but then you got companies like Giant, Acer, Asus, BenQ, zyxel, gogoro, etc.

    Taiwan is doing pretty good actually considering their size, I doubt they are doing any worse than e.g. Australia which is of the same size. Throwing in the fact that Taiwan is not officially recognised either and the lack of FTAs, they are doing very well.
    They are good companies, but honestly if you go to Europe or US with those names I doubt 1 in 10 people would recognise them. TSMC like Foxconn has a significant part of their operations and factories in China so I m saying Taiwan is very much intertwined with China and China has a lot of bigger cities that can act as finance hub. Mind you I love Taiwan and visit the place at least 3 to 5 times a year but I cannot deny the lack of development since I started doing business there more than 10 years ago.


    Taiwan will trot along just fine but it is definitely not a "dragon" and with geopolitical issues, restricted currency, massive spending on defense it is hard to see it as a finance hub in the near future.