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National Security Law: Friday Edition...

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  1. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    They might not care about the fate of HK, but they will care about the serious negative consequences this act will bring on them. It will impact their rule in HK. And what message does this send to the world? To Taiwan? That China cannot be trusted to abide by the treaties they signed. That China will destroy the prosperity of the city. That it is incapable of governing a city with a rule of law. That is hardly an appealing message.
    Your wrong. For an example I give you the South China Sea, disappearing bookshop owners etc etc.

    They will do anything they want, when they want, to whom they want and handle the fallout in their own , - Shrugs shoulders, " What me?" approach. They just don't do it "in your face" but rather behind your back and make judgements of time , place and severity based upon the events prevailing at this time. They challenge you to challenge them, knowing that those who have the ability to do it , won't and that they can control those who will get of their comfortable arses, through the appeasers

    To do this to HK is now good on timing as everyone is distracted and financially weakened. Yes, there will be jaw jaw but no war war so they can basically put two fingers up and proclaim, " HK is China and this is an internal matter." The new law gives the police the refreshed, targeted, power to arrest and the courts to try, on anyone protesting , sedition ( questioning the state ) and foreigners for " foreign interference " so journos .. that's you. OR, they ( the police ) can just arrest on anything, like they do with assembly when no one is assembling and have the benefit to challenge in court the seriousness of charges so they get to keep the "offender" in custody and / or disqualify them from any public office. Either way, a tool to de-fang opposition.

    But the US, Europe will raise the standard and defend the rights, I hear the cry. Trump is a bully blowhard, not a diplomat. He is playing in his East China Sea bathtub because it gives him a hard on. China will not want him for a second term because he is a loose cannon to their regimented approach to life and " the peoples happiness." I.E. Keeping them sweet with business coming in. They could care less about him, his bombers or aircraft carriers. he will be gone in 6 months and that is quantum time in their universe. The next guy they can deal with and no one ( but Trump ) uses battleship diplomacy anymore. China therefore wins. HK'rs show how naive they are believing in the Orange.

    Europe? No one cares what those no hope deadbeats say or think. Their defence is around NATO (underwritten by the US) so, China would have to do a Genghis Khan to get them to take notice - so - no. There are not going to help because China doesn't do that because they know they do not have the tools to win. Like Russia they win by spreading confusion and aiming to destabilise. It's a Marxist / Leninist thing.

    US will stop trade? Well then, China stops buying US debt, that alone is enough to stop the US in their tracks. Trump has piled up so much debt lining the pockets of his rich friends, that this trade is essential just to stand still. China chooses to nationalise all foreign factories? US loses again because their ( right or wrong ) capitalist system is based on cheap free trade which caused them to sell their soul to the China cheap labour market in the first place. Like the British textile and china industries, China has all your machinery and your technology ( thanks Elon Musk, GE, GM, etc etc ) that they can trade on without you thanks but the reverse in the short term is not true without more cost ( remember the debt market ), so .... China wins again because of capitalists ( good or bad ) deciding that the bottom line is more important than long term security. Thanks all you hedge funds that force companies to continually out perform the market to keep it's share price viable.

    The only chink ( not racist ) in the Chinese wall is the people. Make them poor again or make them feel they WILL be and they WILL rise up and that is Xi basically sitting on the beach at Beidaihe swapping "what if" stories with Zhang and Hu. For that to happen he would have to lose the support of the PLA and his family is deep into them, so no, not expected. That is how he has managed to have himself declared "The Core" after all.

    Long story short - we are f***ed. My 16 year love affair with this place is over and talking to local friends they all envy my passport to be able to contemplate a plan B. Oft quoted is "we have a BNO" and it is sad to think they hold store in believing the UK will honour anything with that. This is a sad time that will progress to a bad time and then further to a REAL BAD time.

    I do not want to be offensive to our beloved multicultural community whom I think should be a model for a lot of countries BUT I can imagine what some people thought in 1933 as a certain political appointee made himself " King for life" and the Enabling Act of the same year led not.....( because millions of Austrians did not die ) his own people to such destruction and turmoil. Too much? We shall see but "he who shall not be named" is getting close and I don't see a Harry Potter in my rear view mirror.
    shri, AsianXpat0, Baklava and 5 others like this.

  2. #72

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    Quote Originally Posted by David4Maths:
    Your wrong. For an example I give you the South China Sea, disappearing bookshop owners etc etc.

    They will do anything they want, when they want, to whom they want and handle the fallout in their own , - Shrugs shoulders, " What me?" approach. They just don't do it "in your face" but rather behind your back and make judgements of time , place and severity based upon the events prevailing at this time. They challenge you to challenge them, knowing that those who have the ability to do it , won't and that they can control those who will get of their comfortable arses, through the appeasers

    To do this to HK is now good on timing as everyone is distracted and financially weakened. Yes, there will be jaw jaw but no war war so they can basically put two fingers up and proclaim, " HK is China and this is an internal matter." The new law gives the police the refreshed, targeted, power to arrest and the courts to try, on anyone protesting , sedition ( questioning the state ) and foreigners for " foreign interference " so journos .. that's you. OR, they ( the police ) can just arrest on anything, like they do with assembly when no one is assembling and have the benefit to challenge in court the seriousness of charges so they get to keep the "offender" in custody and / or disqualify them from any public office. Either way, a tool to de-fang opposition.

    But the US, Europe will raise the standard and defend the rights, I hear the cry. Trump is a bully blowhard, not a diplomat. He is playing in his East China Sea bathtub because it gives him a hard on. China will not want him for a second term because he is a loose cannon to their regimented approach to life and " the peoples happiness." I.E. Keeping them sweet with business coming in. They could care less about him, his bombers or aircraft carriers. he will be gone in 6 months and that is quantum time in their universe. The next guy they can deal with and no one ( but Trump ) uses battleship diplomacy anymore. China therefore wins. HK'rs show how naive they are believing in the Orange.

    Europe? No one cares what those no hope deadbeats say or think. Their defence is around NATO (underwritten by the US) so, China would have to do a Genghis Khan to get them to take notice - so - no. There are not going to help because China doesn't do that because they know they do not have the tools to win. Like Russia they win by spreading confusion and aiming to destabilise. It's a Marxist / Leninist thing.

    US will stop trade? Well then, China stops buying US debt, that alone is enough to stop the US in their tracks. Trump has piled up so much debt lining the pockets of his rich friends, that this trade is essential just to stand still. China chooses to nationalise all foreign factories? US loses again because their ( right or wrong ) capitalist system is based on cheap free trade which caused them to sell their soul to the China cheap labour market in the first place. Like the British textile and china industries, China has all your machinery and your technology ( thanks Elon Musk, GE, GM, etc etc ) that they can trade on without you thanks but the reverse in the short term is not true without more cost ( remember the debt market ), so .... China wins again because of capitalists ( good or bad ) deciding that the bottom line is more important than long term security. Thanks all you hedge funds that force companies to continually out perform the market to keep it's share price viable.

    The only chink ( not racist ) in the Chinese wall is the people. Make them poor again or make them feel they WILL be and they WILL rise up and that is Xi basically sitting on the beach at Beidaihe swapping "what if" stories with Zhang and Hu. For that to happen he would have to lose the support of the PLA and his family is deep into them, so no, not expected. That is how he has managed to have himself declared "The Core" after all.

    Long story short - we are f***ed. My 16 year love affair with this place is over and talking to local friends they all envy my passport to be able to contemplate a plan B. Oft quoted is "we have a BNO" and it is sad to think they hold store in believing the UK will honour anything with that. This is a sad time that will progress to a bad time and then further to a REAL BAD time.

    I do not want to be offensive to our beloved multicultural community whom I think should be a model for a lot of countries BUT I can imagine what some people thought in 1933 as a certain political appointee made himself " King for life" and the Enabling Act of the same year led not.....( because millions of Austrians did not die ) his own people to such destruction and turmoil. Too much? We shall see but "he who shall not be named" is getting close and I don't see a Harry Potter in my rear view mirror.
    No. You are relying on false assumptions based on the old "operating model" of Sino-US relations where business interest reign supreme. Trump has changed this calculation. The US is now more willing to bear economic cost. In other words, they are willing to bear cost to challenge China.

    This move is is going over a red line for Washington. More so than South China Sea. I cannot imagine Washington doing nothing. Some US retaliation will come, in what shape or form is up for debate, but it will come.

  3. #73

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    Quote Originally Posted by shri:
    @shri: Tweet previews still don't display correctly on chrome. Only top part with name of twitter account is visible.
    Coolboy likes this.

  4. #74

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    No. You are relying on false assumptions based on the old "operating model" of Sino-US relations where business interest reign supreme. Trump has changed this calculation. The US is now more willing to bear economic cost. In other words, they are willing to bear cost to challenge China.

    This move is is going over a red line for Washington. More so than South China Sea. I cannot imagine Washington doing nothing. Some US retaliation will come, in what shape or form is up for debate, but it will come.
    I hate to disagree, but his assessment is realistic. Plus Trump only cares about Trump and the next elections. Whether that means something slightly more or slightly less positive for Hong Kong remains to be seen, but the HK community has to think fast what their own appropriate response is.
    TSTPaul, Baklava and DennisMilano like this.

  5. #75

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    US will stop trade? Well then, China stops buying US debt, that alone is enough to stop the US in their tracks.
    Obligatory reminder that China doesn't "buy" US debt. It's what they receive instead of dollars bills in exchange for all the cheap shit they are selling to the US. If the US should stop trading with China and ends up manufacturing their cheap shit in another country, then that country will hold all that new US debt. And as I've mentioned in another post, China only holds 4% of all outstanding US debt. There also is no alternative to US debt for China to keep their US dollars in. What other currency are they gonna do their international trade in? That monopoly money that nobody can freely exchange and whose exchange rate is determined by the CCP? Gimme a break. As long as the RMB has capital controls it won't ever be used by anyone in a serious manner and as soon as the CCP removes those capital controls the money will be gone from China.
    shri, AsianXpat0, TSTPaul and 6 others like this.

  6. #76

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    Trump has changed this calculation. The US is now more willing to bear economic cost. In other words, they are willing to bear cost to challenge China.

    This move is is going over a red line for Washington. More so than South China Sea. I cannot imagine Washington doing nothing. Some US retaliation will come, in what shape or form is up for debate, but it will come.
    So based on your assertion, it will be war ? Nothing economical is going to do permanent damage.. either sides.. so it will be physical pain or none...

  7. #77

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    No. You are relying on false assumptions based on the old "operating model" of Sino-US relations where business interest reign supreme. Trump has changed this calculation. The US is now more willing to bear economic cost. In other words, they are willing to bear cost to challenge China.

    This move is is going over a red line for Washington. More so than South China Sea. I cannot imagine Washington doing nothing. Some US retaliation will come, in what shape or form is up for debate, but it will come.
    Yup degloblization and relocating factories away from China are most likely the trend post pandaemic
    Skyhook likes this.

  8. #78

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coolboy:
    No. You are relying on false assumptions based on the old "operating model" of Sino-US relations where business interest reign supreme. Trump has changed this calculation. The US is now more willing to bear economic cost. In other words, they are willing to bear cost to challenge China.

    This move is is going over a red line for Washington. More so than South China Sea. I cannot imagine Washington doing nothing. Some US retaliation will come, in what shape or form is up for debate, but it will come.
    This is such a naive view it should be put in the exhibits of "Naive University Museum for Naive People".
    The only "red line " Trump has, is the marking McDonalds put on his burger(s) showing "no pickles".

    It amazes me how anyone can put faith in a delusional, multi bankrupt, serial liar, ex tv presenter , abuser and borderline incestuous paedophile.

  9. #79

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    Quote Originally Posted by AsianXpat0:
    I hate to disagree, but his assessment is realistic. Plus Trump only cares about Trump and the next elections. Whether that means something slightly more or slightly less positive for Hong Kong remains to be seen, but the HK community has to think fast what their own appropriate response is.
    Well I am sorry to disagree with you. The US has stake a not inconsiderable amount of political capital on maintaining freedoms for HK. It is politically infeasible for them to do nothing in response. That simply won't fly in Washington.
    Paxbritannia likes this.

  10. #80

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    Quote Originally Posted by David4Maths:
    This is such a naive view it should be put in the exhibits of "Naive University Museum for Naive People".
    The only "red line " Trump has, is the marking McDonalds put on his burger(s) showing "no pickles".

    It amazes me how anyone can put faith in a delusional, multi bankrupt, serial liar, ex tv presenter , abuser and borderline incestuous paedophile.
    The only one naive is you in thinking that the West will have zero response. You keep thinking Sino-US relations operate like before. You are delusional to think nothing has changed. Please grow up and open your eyes. Things have changed. There is significant political capital in Washington to push back against China, something Trump himself cannot stop.

    Time for you to wake up and realize the old assumptions underlying Sino-US relations has changed. Even if Biden is elected, he will not get back to being hunky-dory with China. This is beyond just Trump. The entire position of Washington has changed in regards to policies to China. Business interest no longer dictate the relationship. Strategic considerations come first. You can either accept this new reality or keep digging your head in the sand believing nothing will change and continue to throw childish insults. The choice is up to you.

    P.S-Just out of curiosity, how old are you?
    Last edited by Coolboy; 22-05-2020 at 03:08 PM.
    RMDNC and Paxbritannia like this.

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